Frustration About Short Sales

The trend lines for this week continue to suggest that the Active inventory is declining while demand is increasing. Prices may have bottomed out and some factors are in place to see a potential reversal of the downward pricing spiral. As stated in this blog frequently, it is important to note that the pricing and subsequent market value of homes varies dramatically from neighborhood to neighborhood and the condition and amenities of each home.

This week the number of homes in Active status is lower by 1.7% than last week and is 10.62% lower than last year at this same time period. The number of homes in the Pending status is 58.64% higher than last year at this time. Closed sales for April 2010 are 10.53% higher than last April. The number of Closed sales skew the number for Pending sales because longer escrows are required for, including but not limited to; the short sales, tighter lending requirements for buyers and tougher lender requirements for the home.

Below are the numbers by cities and the count of short sales and bank owned properties:

City Active Status Pending Status Closed Escrows

Short Sale/REO Short Sale/REO Short Sale/REO

Belmont 1/2 1/1 7/3

Burlingame 6/0 8/0 2/0

Foster City 2/1 3/0 4/0

Hillsborough 2/1 4/10 0/0

Redwood Shores 1/1 1/2 0/1

San Mateo 26/5 57/10 4/0


Pay particular attention the statistics for the City of San Mateo. 57 Pending sales are short sales, yet there were only 4 of the 44 Closed sales that were reported as Short sales. 10 in San Mateo’s Pending sales were REO and no REO’s were reported as Closed in San Mateo in April. tThese figures would clearly indicate to me that I would pay a nominal premium in price to purchase a home that is not a short sale because once I remove my contingencies, I know the home is mine. But it is unlikely that most buyers will take this advice as everyone is out of the “deal”. And many times they will be missing out of other opportunities while waiting for the bank short pay approval. It will be interesting to see which markets, if any, will be negatively impacted by unemployment, short sales, bank-owned properties, and most likely, interest rates.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors stated in their May 2010 issue; “Mortgage interest rates have been historically low for a long time, but expect them to start climbing soon. Thirty-year fixed rates may rise to 6 percent by December and to about 6.5 percent at the end of 2011; rates were about 5 percent in early April.

It’s tempting to think the Federal Reserve’s recent pullback from mortgage-backed securities purchases will drive interest rates higher.

But since it ended those purchases at the end of March, as it had planned to do, the impact on rates has been negligible. By all appearances, private investors have filled the void and are absorbing the MBS supply, keeping rates down. Predictable macro-economic factors – the continuing high U.S. budget deficit and the recovering economy – are the main reasons rates are likely to climb.”

I have been told that historically, but I haven’t verified, that the market activity increases just as rates start to go up because people want to lock in the low rates before they go higher. The tax credits have been attributed to the surge in first time home buyers along with the affordability factor. Will an increase in rates fuel the market as our economy improves?